Anesthesia Forecast

The supply of Anesthesiologists may not be meetingFurthermore, demand for physicians' services is highly
the demand for services creating shortages.  Somesensitive to changes in healthcare reimbursement
medical schools are increasing their enrollments basedpolicies. If changes to health coverage result in higher
on this.   Further, this shortage of personnel makes itout-of-pocket costs for consumers, they may demand
harder for hospitals to terminate contracts with onefewer physician services.
group and replace them with another.  This enhancesIn rural settings, CRNAs are the sole anesthesia
their ability to negotiate better contracts which drive upproviders in nearly two thirds of all hospitals.  CRNAs
costs of health care. The supply of Anesthesiologistsare also the main provider of obstetrical anesthesia in
may not be meeting the demand for services creatingthe United States
shortages.  Some medical schools are increasing theirIncrease in the Demand for Anesthesia Jobs
enrollments based on this.   Further, this shortage ofThe National Center for Health Statistics states
personnel makes it harder for hospitals to terminateinpatient surgeries were flat between 1994 and 2000.
contracts with one group and replace them withWhile the number of anesthesia providers has
another.  This enhances their ability to negotiate betterremained relatively constant in recent years, surgical
contracts which drive up costs of health care.volumes have increased nationwide, placing greater
Economics and Healthdemand on the providers of anesthesia services.
The job loss caused by the recession directly impactsBad Economy and Aging Population
all physicians’ income. When millions of peopleThe recent stock market collapse is having a major
lose their jobs, they also lose their health careimpact on older physicians' decisions of all specialties.
insurance and physicians lose patients that can pay.  Many doctors are postponing retirement for a few
Hopefully the job loss is a short term set back, but ityears, because of the losses they sustained in their
does affect demand for services and income forretirement accounts.  However, even a few years
physicians immediately. This in effect destroys thedelay of retirement won't address the increased
underlying projections of the growth of demand madedemands caused by this impending loss of
just a few years ago. Until the economy picks up andexperienced physicians. This postponement has
the unemployment drops from 10% to the 4 to 5%already resulted in fewer jobs being offered and
area there is a great possibility that the demand for allgraduating residents not finding as many good
health care services based on per crash assumptionsopportunities as before. Some residents rather than
is optimistic.committing themselves to less desirable full time jobs
Shortage of Anesthesiologistsare opting for locum Anesthesia jobs.
From 1995 the number of anesthesiologists graduatingHealth Insurance Reform
from residency programs decreased. According to theThe final question is the outcome of national health
American Society of Anesthesiologists the number ofreform.  Will there be any changes at all. This debate
American anesthesia residency graduates decreasedhas frozen decision making for many in health care.  If
from 1,547 in 1995 to only 392 in 2000. During the samethe health care reform actually happens in increasing
period, the number of practicing anesthesiologiststhe enrollment into health care insurance then the long
increased by less than 9 percent, according to theterm the aging population and these increased
AMA. This compares with a 13 percent increase in thenumbers should push demand for services and income
number of physicians in all specialties.higher. However, no one yet knows what will happen
CRNAsto reimbursement rates from Medicare.  Already
The rising cost of healthcare can dramatically affectthere has been some lowering of rates they pay in
demand for physicians’ services. CRNAs, whoRadiology which has directly impacted that specialty.
can perform many of the routine duties of physiciansThe question is will there be more rates cut that will
at a fraction of the cost, may be increasingly used.affect all specialties including Anesthesia.